My analysis of Odisha elections-2017 Reply

The concurrent election in Odisha just drew to a close and I did an analysis on the results available tentatively. Notice that there is no visible errors here even if I eg adjusted 854 to 850 and so on. If you add up the % figures they add to 100% perfectly — I simply did the calculation and applied no tricks, that means there is some simple pattern in the data which is the reason I made this post.

Making small changes in large numbers calls to Euclid every-time and makes sure nothing changes as such. Even if there would be a little changes it would really matter not if numbers are properly normalized (that is adjusted to 100%) which becomes difficult if there are inherent larger errors.

Last election (2012) # of seats won (% of 850) followed by 2017.
2012 BJD: 76, Cong: 14, BJP: 4, Others: 6.
2017 BJD: 53, Cong: 8, BJP: 37, Others: 2.

DO you see what Odisha did to BJD? 2012 there was 52% disparity between ruling seats and oppositions seats. (76-24)/100. In this election its 6% (53-47)/100. From 52% more stronger, it has come down to 6% more stronger, than opposition. Good job BJD.

Its clear that BJD lost 23% of total seats, Cong 6%, Others 4%. All these losses were gain of BJP 23+6+4 = 33%. It already had 4% seats. So 37% seats.

Also note that BJD came down from 3/4 to 2/4. BJP on the other hand went from 0/3 to 1/3. Another 1/3 and it will have 2/3rd majority in any future election. If this erosion continues in future BJD will become congress of Odisha. It will have 20% seats which is not much different from 14%. Good Luck with all that hubris.

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s