Odisha panchayat election 2017. Photo-credit >> odiaportal.in

My analysis of Odisha elections — 2017

Odisha Panchayat Election 2017

The concurrent election in Odisha just drew to a close and I did an analysis on the results available tentatively. Notice that there is no visible errors here, even if I e.g. adjusted 854 to 850 and so on.

If you add up the % figures they add to 100% perfectly — I simply did the calculation and applied no tricks, that means there is some simple pattern in the data which is the reason I made this post.

Making small changes in large numbers calls to Euclid every-time and makes sure nothing changes as such. Even if there would be a little change it would really matter not if numbers are properly normalized ( that is adjusted to 100% ) which becomes difficult if there are inherent larger errors.

Odisha panchayat election 2017. Photo-credit >> odiaportal.in
Odisha panchayat election 2017. Photo-credit >> odiaportal.in

2012 vs 2017

Last election ( 2012 ) # of seats won ( % of 850 ) followed by the same in 2017.

2012 BJD: 76, Cong: 14, BJP: 4, Others: 6.
2017 BJD: 53, Cong: 8, BJP: 37, Others: 2.

Do you see what Odisha did to BJD?

In 2012 there was a 52 % disparity between seats won by ruling party BJD and seats won by oppositions members. The mentioned asymmetry was calculated like this: 52 \,percent = \frac{( \,76 - 24\, )}{100}.

In this election, in 2017, its merely a 6 % disparity which is calculated the exactly same way. 6 \,percent = \frac{( \,53 - 47\, )}{100}.

From 52 % stronger than the opposition, it has come down to 6 % stronger, than opposition. Good job BJD.

Its clear that BJD lost 23 % of total seats, Congress lost 6 % and Others lost 4 %. All these losses were gained by BJP which adds up like this >> 23 + 6 + 4 = 33 %. BJP already had 4 % seats. So now it has 37 % seats.

Also note that BJD came down from 3-4th to 2-4th ( 50 % ).

BJP on the other hand went from 0-3rd to 1-3rd. Another 1-3rd and it will have 2-3rd majority in any future election. If this erosion continues in future BJD will become the Congress of Odisha. It will have 20 % seats which is not much different from 14 %.

Good Luck with all that hubris.

I am an experimental particle physicist, traveler, teacher, researcher, scientist and communicator of ideas. I am a quarkist and a bit quirky ! Hypothesis non fingo, eppur si muove, dubito cogito ergo sum are things that turn me on ! Researcher in experimental high energy physics (aka elementary particle physics; like “quarks, leptons & mesons and baryons”) … Teacher of Physics (and occasionally chemistry and maths) Blogger (check my website; mdashf.org) ! Love to read read and read but only stuff that interest me. Love to puff away my time in frivolities, just dreaming and may be thinking. Right now desperately trying to streamline myself.

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s