My analysis of Odisha elections — 2017

Odisha Panchayat Election 2017

The concurrent election in Odisha just drew to a close and I did an analysis on the results available tentatively. Notice that there is no visible errors here, even if I e.g. adjusted 854 to 850 and so on.

If you add up the % figures they add to 100% perfectly — I simply did the calculation and applied no tricks, that means there is some simple pattern in the data which is the reason I made this post.

Making small changes in large numbers calls to Euclid every-time and makes sure nothing changes as such. Even if there would be a little change it would really matter not if numbers are properly normalized ( that is adjusted to 100% ) which becomes difficult if there are inherent larger errors.

Odisha panchayat election 2017. Photo-credit >> odiaportal.in

Odisha panchayat election 2017. Photo-credit >> odiaportal.in

2012 vs 2017

Last election ( 2012 ) # of seats won ( % of 850 ) followed by the same in 2017.

2012 BJD: 76, Cong: 14, BJP: 4, Others: 6.
2017 BJD: 53, Cong: 8, BJP: 37, Others: 2.

Do you see what Odisha did to BJD?

In 2012 there was a 52 % disparity between seats won by ruling party BJD and seats won by oppositions members. The mentioned asymmetry was calculated like this: 52 \,percent = \frac{( \,76 - 24\, )}{100}.

In this election, in 2017, its merely a 6 % disparity which is calculated the exactly same way. 6 \,percent = \frac{( \,53 - 47\, )}{100}.

From 52 % stronger than the opposition, it has come down to 6 % stronger, than opposition. Good job BJD.

Its clear that BJD lost 23 % of total seats, Congress lost 6 % and Others lost 4 %. All these losses were gained by BJP which adds up like this >> 23 + 6 + 4 = 33 %. BJP already had 4 % seats. So now it has 37 % seats.

Also note that BJD came down from 3-4th to 2-4th ( 50 % ).

BJP on the other hand went from 0-3rd to 1-3rd. Another 1-3rd and it will have 2-3rd majority in any future election. If this erosion continues in future BJD will become the Congress of Odisha. It will have 20 % seats which is not much different from 14 %.

Good Luck with all that hubris.



Categories: consultancy, India, politics, Social affairs

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